We've entered a dangerous new era for humanity - the era of accelerating climate breakdown. This can no longer be avoided: the task ahead is to adapt, mitigate, and do as much as we can to transform our systems so that we can begin to restore and regenerate.

A shocking new study concludes that summer sea ice in the Arctic - recognised as a major stabilising force in the earth’s climate system - is inevitably going to disappear in coming decades, and could disappear as early as the 2030s. The study finds that this is now inevitable, and will happen even with a dramatic reduction in carbon emissions.

Highlights

• ... warming rates similar to or higher than modern trends have only occurred during past abrupt glacial episodes. We argue that the Arctic is currently experiencing an abrupt climate change event, and that climate models underestimate this ongoing warming.

• All this suggests that with the Arctic having now crossed a tipping point, a new phase of global climate disruption can no longer be avoided. This stark conclusion has tremendous implications. Among them is the inadequacy of basing climate policymaking on the most conservative findings of the international scientific consensus.

• Many scientists acknowledge that prevailing climate models, far from being too alarmist, consistently underestimate the pace and scale of climate change.

• The global failure to keep up with Hansen's prescient warning offers us a stark lesson in systems thinking.

• This can create a self reinforcing feedback loop that might continue even if the original cause stops. The result is a process of change that is nonlinear and potentially exponential in speed and scale.

• Due to the pivotal nature of the Arctic in regulating the wider climate system, the danger is that once the Arctic gets destabilised, this kicks off a series of other interconnected but different ecosystems to also cross tipping points.

• Multiple ecosystems are intimately connected with and regulated by the Arctic.

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